主讲人：
（1）陈宁（社会学院2016级社会学博士）
主讲题目：中国人口预测研究的回顾与反思
文章主要内容：人口预测结果精度是科学决策的重要依据，但当前对过往预测结果进行回顾检验的研究却被学术界所忽视。文章通过选择部分人口预测研究成果为研究样本，设定误差率作为测量指标，对样本的预测效果进行了检验。同时从研究样本的基础数据、参数设定、预测模型等影响预测结果的关键要素进行了比较分析，以期考察人口预测研究结果出现偏差的缘由。在此基础上，进一步探讨了人口预测研究中基础数据的评估与调整、生育水平和死亡水平的设定以及预测模型的选择等要素的处理问题。
（2）王军鹏（管理学院2014级工商管理博士）
主讲题目：Why They Leave: The Impact of Economic Performance on Intergenerational Distance in China
文章主要内容：It is well documented that individual characteristics of parents and children influence intergenerational distance, yet the impact of regional characteristics has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the impact of regional economic performance on intergenerational distance in China, one of the largest developing economies which has experienced drastic economic and social transition. Using data from a national representative survey--China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), and employing ordered probit model, we find that the economic performance of parents’ living region is negatively associated with parent-adult child distance. This association is stronger for adult-children who are younger, better-educated, male, and have no siblings. Further analysis shows that longer intergenerational distance is negatively related to non-financial support received by older parents. This evidence informs China to improve the society security system and take care of older parents who are left behind, especially in less developed regions.
主持人:翟佩丽（2016级社会工作硕士研究生）
点评老师:果臻老师
地点:社会学院办公楼501教室
时间:2016年10月22日（周六）下午15:00。
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